Future Energy Scenarios 2022 | National Grid ESO

Future Energy Scenarios (FES) represent a range of different, credible ways to decarbonise our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target.

We’re less than 30 years away from the Net Zero deadline, which isn’t long when you consider investment cycles for gas networks, electricity transmission lines and domestic heating systems.

FES has an important role to play in stimulating debate and helping to shape the energy system of the future.

FES highlights

Learn more about FES

FES 2022: Watch the virtual sessions now

This year, we took a deeper look at each one of the FES 2022 Key Messages with presentations, Q&A and a panel discussion. Watch the video presentations by pressing the play icon or download the slides using the link below each image.

FES 2022 briefing event

Watch a recording of our briefing event to mark the launch of the 2022 edition of our Future Energy Scenarios report. Watch a recording of our briefing event to mark the launch of the 2022 edition of our Future Energy Scenarios report.

Key Message 1: Policy and Delivery

We look at how significantly accelerating the transition to a decarbonised energy system can help to address security and affordability concerns at the same time as delivering Net Zero milestones.

Key Message 2: Consumer and Digitalisation

We look at how consumer behaviour towards market and policy change, and smart technology will be vital to meeting Net Zero.

Key Message 3: Markets and Flexibility

We look at how reforming energy markets to improve price signals will help unlock the flexible solutions needed to integrate renewables efficiently.

Key Message 4: Infrastructure and Whole Energy System

We look at how strategic investment in the whole energy system is urgently required to keep pace with Net Zero ambitions and strengthen energy security.

Document suite

Future Energy Scenarios 2022 report

The Future Energy Scenarios publication outlines a number of credible energy futures that mean we can continue to support the development of the energy system.

Future Energy Scenarios 2022 in Five

For faster reading, download our FES summary document, which highlights the key headlines and statistics from the full publication.

Note: The interactive document will display most effectively when downloaded using Adobe Acrobat. Alternatively, a non-interactive flat copy is available in the full suite of FES 2022 documents.

Jump to full suite of FES 2022 documents

FES 2022 executive introduction

Since last year’s Future Energy Scenarios, the world has continued to change at pace. The impact from the pandemic is still being felt, while the devastating war in Ukraine is testing supply chains and access to fossil fuels for homes and industry. The past year has sparked recognition of the importance of a faster transition to Net Zero, to support energy security and reduce exposure to volatile international fossil fuel prices, by harnessing abundant renewable and low carbon resources. In the grips of a cost-of-living crisis, it is crucial that we never lose sight of the consumer while also focusing on delivering the broader societal benefits that can come from the transition. As a result, the Electricity System Operator (ESO)'s mission has never been more important: to drive the transformation to a fully decarbonised electricity system by 2035 which is reliable, affordable and fair for all.

The Future Energy Scenarios (FES 2022) sets out credible ways that the UK can achieve Net Zero by 2050, as well as the UK Government’s commitment to a decarbonised electricity system by 2035. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, research and modelling, each scenario considers how much energy we might need; where it could come from; and how we maintain a system that is reliable.

Find out more about FES 2022

Key messages

Our key messages are built around what our analysis suggests is needed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Download Future Energy Scenarios 2022 in Five

1. Policy and delivery

Significantly accelerating the transition to a decarbonised energy system can help to address security and affordability concerns at the same time as delivering Net Zero milestones.

Leading the Way reaches Net Zero in 2047
Overall end consumer demand reduces by over 40% by 2035 in Leading the Way
Leading the Way has no unabated natural gas generation capacity after 2035
Levelised costs of wind and solar are much lower than unabated natural gas generation for projects commissioning in 2025

Key recommendations

1. Demand side strategy

The British Energy Security Strategy addresses long term strategic priorities by ensuring greater levels of low carbon energy supply.

A corresponding demand side strategy that incentivises more flexible electricity consumption, long duration storage and early hydrogen uptake is also required to avoid significant volumes of renewable energy being wasted during periods of oversupply as well as to ensure capacity adequacy.

2. Energy efficiency

Improving energy efficiency is a no-regrets policy solution that can provide immediate benefits in terms of both affordability and energy security while also facilitating more enduring decarbonisation.

A plan to roll out thermal insulation to buildings alongside associated financing is urgently needed to unlock these benefits.

3. Regional focus on heat

A ‘one-size fits all’ approach to decarbonisation of residential heat is not optimal due to differences in consumer preferences, availability of resources and proximity to energy infrastructure.

Within a national strategy, delivery of the targeted solutions and investment required by consumers should take place at a more regional level to leverage local knowledge and improve affordability.

2. Consumer and digitalisation

Consumer behaviour is pivotal to decarbonisation – how we all react to market and policy changes, and embrace smart technology, will be vital to meeting Net Zero.

84% of people said that they were concerned about climate change, with 41% saying they were “very concerned” (BEIS Public Attitudes Tracker, Spring 2022, UK)
82% of people said they had given either a lot, or a fair amount, of thought to saving energy in the home (BEIS Public Attitudes Tracker, Spring 2022, UK)
In our scenarios, consumer engagement in smart EV charging ranges from 43% (FS) to 92% (LW) in 2035
As at the end of March 2022, only 45% of installed energy meters were smart and operating in smart mode

Key recommendations

1. Driving change

Significant levels of demand side flexibility are required to operate the electricity system without unabated natural gas after 2035.

Suppliers must be further supported to increase the availability of flexible time-of-use-tariffs so that consumers can respond to market signals and benefit from low prices at times of high renewable output.

2. Digitalisation and innovation

Even the most engaged consumers won’t manually adjust their demand in line with prices and so smart digital solutions will be required to do this for them automatically and seamlessly.

To facilitate developments in smart technology and better understanding of regional trends, data must be made available to innovators while ensuring that appropriate consumer protection is maintained.

3. Consumer information

Consumers are willing to make changes to meet Net Zero but need to be reliably informed about both how they can help as well as the affordability benefits of low carbon solutions.

Targeted campaigns, led by trusted bodies, are required to provide consumers with the information they need to decarbonise and embrace new technology.

3. Markets and flexibility

Reforming energy markets to improve price signals will help unlock the flexible solutions needed to integrate renewables efficiently.

Wind and solar generation currently make up 43% of GB energy supply and this rises to at least 66% across the scenarios by 2030
Annual transmission constraint costs have increased from £170m in 2010 to £1.3bn in 2022 and are expected to continue rising
In Leading the Way, demand side flexibility reduces unmanaged peak demand by over 40% by 2035
Consumer Transformation and Leading the Way have more than 115 GWh of electricity storage in 2035 compared to less than 30 GWh today

Key recommendations

1. Flexibility requirement

Operating a future energy system with high levels of renewables and no unabated natural gas generation will require significantly more flexible capacity than we have today.

Current market signals mean that flexible assets cannot contribute their full value to the system and may at times exacerbate network constraints - the impact of this will only increase in the future if changes are not made now.

2. Locational signals

ESO analysis shows that market reform is needed to provide the dynamic real-time locational signals required to optimise dispatch and siting decisions of flexible capacity on the whole energy system.

Improving locational signals has the potential to deliver significant cost savings to consumers without any adverse impact on renewable targets.

3. Market participation

The energy market of the future must harness the vast potential of demand side flexibility to integrate renewables and ensure security of supply at least cost for all.

Market changes must facilitate flexible tariffs, support innovation, and reduce barriers to participation for new market entrants from the industrial and commercial sector or in the form of aggregated residential demand.

4. Infrastructure and whole energy system

Strategic investment in the whole energy system is urgently required to keep pace with Net Zero ambitions and strengthen energy security.

Across the scenarios, at least 31 GW of offshore wind is connected in 2030 with 51 GW in Leading the Way
At least 15 TWh of electricity is curtailed in the Net Zero scenarios by 2030
There are over 40 GW of network-connected electrolysers in Leading the Way and System Transformation in 2050

Key recommendations

1. Strategic whole system thinking

Delivery of the British Energy Security Strategy requires urgent anticipatory investment to ensure the energy system is not a blocker to Net Zero.

Strategic coordination and whole system thinking, especially across the electricity and hydrogen sectors, is required to achieve decarbonisation targets and avoid unmanageable network constraints and potential curtailment.

2. Inter-seasonal storage

The whole energy system of the future will require strategic storage to balance inter-seasonal demand and supply and increase resilience against external security of supply risks.

This will include large-scale geological hydrogen and electricity storage projects which must commence now to support an electricity system without unabated natural gas after 2035.

3. Whole system competition

To ensure affordable delivery of new infrastructure, competition in delivery must be established for large projects.

Competition is also required at a local level to ensure different regions can adopt the low carbon solutions that are most suited to the needs of their consumers.

Explore the report

In the Future Energy Scenarios, we consider the contribution of consumers to the Net Zero challenge (the Energy Consumer); the ways in which the whole energy system needs to adapt as it transitions to a low carbon future (the Energy System); and the importance of flexibility to the ongoing balancing of the system (Flexibility).

Explore the FES 2022 chapters to understand how each links to and influences the others.

Net Zero

Reaching Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions is now widely recognised as critical to the future of our society. In this chapter, we explain what Net Zero is, the results of our modelling, and what they mean for the consumer and the energy system.

The Energy Consumer

The choices and actions of consumers are going to have a big impact on how we meet Net Zero targets. Consumers being engaged with the energy system is crucial to achieving Net Zero in the most cost-effective way.

The Energy System

Consumers require energy that is clean, secure, affordable, and fair. This is achievable but relies on urgent and strategic development of networks, markets, and technologies.

NGESO_Engineer checking a bilog antennas

Flexibility

Energy system flexibility is the ability to adjust supply and demand so that they balance. In this chapter we explore Net Zero flexibility solutions and their different opportunities and challenges.

Note: The interactive document will display most effectively when downloaded using Adobe Acrobat. Alternatively, a non-interactive flat copy is available in the full suite of FES 2022 documents.

FES 2022: Watch the virtual sessions now

FES 2022 briefing event

Key Message 1: Policy and Delivery

Key Message 2: Consumer and Digitalisation

Key Message 3: Markets and Flexibility

Key Message 4: Infrastructure and Whole Energy System

Document suite

Future Energy Scenarios 2022 report

Future Energy Scenarios 2022 in Five

FES 2022 executive introduction

Key messages

Key recommendations

Key recommendations

Key recommendations

Key recommendations

Explore the report

Net Zero

The Energy Consumer

The Energy System

Flexibility

Download the full suite of FES 2022 documents

FES 2022 full report - interactive version

FES 2022 full report - print version

FES in Five - interactive version

FES in Five - print version

Summary of responses to the FES 2023 Call for Evidence

FES 2022: Watch the virtual sessions now

Document suite

FES 2022 executive introduction

Key messages

Key recommendations

Key recommendations

Key recommendations

Key recommendations

Explore the report

Download the full suite of FES 2022 documents