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ESO
Statement on Ofgem demand forecasting investigation
Our statement responding to Ofgem’s investigation into electricity demand forecasting in 2017.
We acknowledge Ofgem’s decision and have cooperated fully throughout their investigation.
Ofgem’s findings relate to a five-month period in 2017 immediately following the introduction of a new 7-day ahead demand forecasting process and an associated new incentive scheme. The investigation has not raised any concerns with our current electricity demand forecasts.
The actions taken four years ago were seeking to achieve more accurate forecasting. However, we acknowledge that, despite this intention, our processes at the time related to the new demand forecast process were not fully developed.
The issues raised in 2017 were fully resolved by December that year. Since then we have made significant investment in our demand forecasting capability, improving the tools and processes involved and trialling innovative new approaches. This has further improved the accuracy of our forecasts and addresses the issues raised in Ofgem’s investigation. We have therefore agreed to settle the case.
