ESO forecasts safe and secure electricity supply this summer

• Sufficient capacity and operational tools to maintain world class reliability standards

• New services set to go live this summer to help minimise consumer costs

• Minimum demand period predicted over Queen’s Platinum Jubilee bank holiday weekend

• ESO confirms plans to publish early view of winter outlook in July

Great Britain’s Electricity System Operator is forecasting a safe and secure supply of electricity this summer in its annual Summer Outlook, published today.

Due to the global energy crisis, the ESO has undertaken additional analysis, and modelled extra scenarios relating to future interconnector flows, compared to previous years. It will also publish an early view of the outlook for winter in July, with a full briefing session ahead of time.

Peak demand and reserve requirement is expected to be met at all times throughout summer 2022 without relying on imports from Europe.

Electricity demand and operational management is expected to be very similar to last summer – with the system operator managing low rather than high demand - and high electricity prices are expected to continue across the season. 

Minimum demand (17.1GW) is predicted to be just marginally (0.1GW) lower than last summer, with summer peak demand (32.8GW) slightly higher than 2021 (32.5GW) and 2020 (31.5GW) as Covid-19 restrictions are lifted.

The forecast minimum demand has moved forward several weeks from July 18 to June 5, which is due to the four-day bank holiday weekend (June 2-5) to mark the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee. Bank holiday weekends are typically times of low demand as people go on holiday and economic activity decreases.

New stability and pre-fault frequency services will also be launched this summer, helping the ESO better manage the system and reduce consumer costs.

Fintan Slye, Executive Director at the Electricity System Operator, said:

Our analysis shows we have the right tools and services available to provide a safe, reliable and secure supply of electricity this summer.

We continue to work with Government, Ofgem and industry stakeholders to manage our electricity system effectively and efficiently, with the right plans and resilience to deal with emerging issues, whilst building tomorrow’s cleaner, greener and fairer system.

Notes to Editors

• For more information and the full report please visit the Summer Outlook page.

• National Grid Gas Transmission has published a separate Gas Summer Outlook for 2022.

• The ESO will publish an early view of its Winter Outlook 2022 report in July 2022.

Contact details

For media enquiries about the ESO Summer Outlook, please contact Alan Harris (07815 464323).