Regionalisation of FES

We believe that there are aspects of decarbonising the whole energy system that are driven mainly by local factors. These cannot be fully understood using only a top-down assessment framework and we are increasingly focusing on more granular regional outputs. This is both as part of our modelling and through the insights we provide to the industry.  

We are hopeful that the drive for regionalisation in our National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios will support understanding of future energy policy at a local level. We are also hopeful it will simplify and optimise the interface with the more bottom-up scenarios currently developed by gas and electricity network companies, such as the DFES, which we will be using to enrich future iterations of FES and further development of the regional breakdown of the GB scenarios. This will build upon and enhance the information we currently produce and publish such as the regional datasets that are used in the Electricity Ten Year Statement process. 

Hand adjusting the heating

Regional Modelling in FES: discussion of the assumptions in our new regional heat model

This recently published (Dec 2021) thought piece builds on our previous publication exploring our heat decarbonisation modelling and introducing our new regional heat model, as well as explaining in more depth the assumptions that were presented in our FES 2021 publication. We are keen to hear your views here on some of the key assumptions that will have an impact on the outputs we produce.

We will be hosting a webinar early next year to discuss this further and would be delighted if you could join us. To register your interest to attend, and future Regional FES events then please use the link below. 

Register your interest

Regional Modelling in FES thought piece

Family eating food with glowlines

Background: why are we doing regionalisation of FES?

  • Better insights for better decisions:  Strengthen GB insights with regional outputs and a coherent set of whole system scenarios, through enhancing regional assumptions and modelling (including better reflection of local factors, technological and fuel differences, increasing accuracy of models with spatial and temporal variations), to provide better information for policy and transmission investment decisions, which are a key enabler of Net zero

  • More consistent and transparent outputs: Providing customers with clear, consistent and comparable scenarios, developed through cross-industry collaboration, where modelling differences will be easily understood, and the data easily compared and shared

  • Greater granularity for targeted solutions:  Be able to anticipate regional operability issues on the transmission system with enhanced regional data and provide greater support for conversations with industry stakeholders

What has happened so far?

Engagement has taken place with key stakeholders over recent weeks to explore a range of subjects; looking at how data and insights from FES is used, what is most important and useful, what are the key considerations for Regional FES and how can it support delivery of business plans with local stakeholders.

Key insight received from the engagement:

  • A more granular view of whole system scenarios would be welcomed, and agree it would increase the robustness of FES

  • A need to ensure scenario creation is coordinated and that there isn’t a duplication of effort

  • A need for transparency of the assumptions driving the regionalisation of the GB FES

  • Broad support for closer collaboration on the creation of more granular scenarios

  • Interactive tools can make it easier to use FES outputs to generate relevant insights

  • A better view of technology uptake and consumer/customer trends at regional level will improve understanding of the impact of the GB FES

The findings gathered from these discussions have led us to where we are today and our planned next steps.

We have already produced some of our analysis on a regional level:

Regional Data

Regional Map

Girl training dog on beach with glowlines

What can you expect next and how can you be involved to provide your views?

Our engagement will continue, and we would like you to be involved. We will soon be hosting a virtual event to share where we are with Regional FES, our plans and how you can be involved going forward. If you would like to attend the webinar then please register your interest here

As well as this we will be:

  • Continue feedback loops on Building Blocks and standardisation

  • Align Regional FES engagement approach and plan with GB FES

  • Broaden engagement to acquire a richer perspective and share / collect new data to support scenario development

  • Testing visualisation and regional insights for use in FES 2022

  • Gather feedback on how we present regional insights and data

  • Prioritisation of modelling enhancements for regionalisation

  • Deeper dive into current regional assumptions e.g. Heat

  • Understanding Building Block gaps and agreeing Year 0 data

  • Agreeing common mapping of spatial splits.