We’re working to make our Future Energy Scenarios more local

To support decarbonisation efforts at a more local level the ESO is enhancing the Future Energy Scenarios to ensure they provide a more accurate view of local decarbonisation. 

What are the Future Energy Scenarios? 

The Future Energy Scenarios represent four potential pathways toward decarbonisation between now and 2050. The scenarios bring together our analysis and expertise, as well as extensive input from the wider industry and are then used to inform a range of activities and investment decisions across the sector.

The four different scenarios represent a variety of assumptions about how policy decisions and consumer behaviour will lead to change more or less quickly.

If you’re unfamiliar with the Future Energy Scenarios and would like to learn more, check out our 2021 summary to learn more.

Regionalisation of FES: What is it? 

At the moment we produce our four Future Energy Scenarios from a single national view for Great Britain and then break this down into a regional view, which uses assumptions based on industry feedback to divide the GB view amongst the different parts of Great Britain. 

This helps us to provide a local breakdown of the national view, which is important to local network planning. It also helps developers know where to build their generating sites for technologies like Offshore Wind Farms etc. 

Under this new approach we will be going a step further to increase the accuracy and value of these regional breakdowns by turning our existing process on its head. Instead we will start building our Future Energy Scenarios at the regional level, building up to a GB-wide view. 

As we move closer and closer to net-zero more decisions will need to be taken at a local level, particularly as we decarbonise how we heat our homes and travel. Creating this more regional view will help make sure that the right decisions are taken. 

When will these changes take effect? 

We have already begun to build up the first round of Regional Future Energy Scenarios and will be incorporating our initial work in the 2022 Future Energy Scenarios. 

Check out our full explainer on the  Regionalisation of FES.