The scenarios for FES 2020
For FES 2020, we have four scenarios, structured in a 2x2 diamond matrix against the two axes of speed of decarbonisation, and level of societal change.
The speed of decarbonisation axis combines policy, economics and consumer attitudes. Each scenario shows a different level of progress towards decarbonisation from today. The scenarios in the centre of the matrix meet the 2050 net zero target. Those on the right meet the target early, and those on left miss the target.
The level of societal change axis means we can explore different solutions for decarbonisation of heat as well as changes in: consumer engagement, levels of energy efficiency and a ‘supply-led vs demand-led’ approach. Scenarios close to the bottom of the axis involve lower levels of energy efficiency improvements, less change in heating technology, and lower levels of consumer flexibility. Scenarios closer to the top of the axis involve greater impact on consumers, with bigger changes to heating systems and insulation, and more consumer flexibility in helping to manage peak demand and intermittent generation.
We’ve kept a four scenario and two axis structure to make comparison with previous years’ frameworks easier. And as in previous years, security of supply standards for both gas and electricity are achieved across all four scenarios.
