FES documents Archive

The FES archive dates back to 2011, and all of our documents are publicly available for download.

2019 archive

Call for Evidence for Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2019

Throughout September, we ran a Call for Evidence as a start to our work for FES 2019. We wanted to provide ample opportunity for our growing stakeholder base to engage with us and to help us develop next year’s scenarios. In this Call for Evidence we explored a range of energy demand and supply issues and invited comments on these. You can see a summary of the responses and questions below. Please note that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the responses belong to those that completed the Call for Evidence and do not necessarily reflect those of National Grid. We will take all the comments into account when developing FES 2019.

In total, we received 70 responses to the Call for Evidence
An initial summary of the responses to the Call for Evidence can be found here
Click here to see the responses from the stakeholders who gave us permission to share them
For the full list of questions we asked, click here

Stakeholder Engagement Workshops

Our generic stakeholder workshops this year were held on 18 October in Warwick and 25 October in London. Both events were well attended by a wide spectrum of stakeholders from across the energy industry and beyond who gave us valuable feedback on key themes for FES 2019 and on issues emerging from the Call for Evidence.

To view the morning presentation from the events, which includes a high-level overview of the Call for Evidence and an update about the changing role of the System Operator, click here

Themed workshops

On Thursday 11th October, we co-organised a themed workshop with stakeholders from a broad range of sectors to discuss the Future of Electric Vehicles. Read a summary of the outputs of the event here

The Future of Heat workshop was held on 20 November and was attend by a wide representation from the heating and power industry. Click here for the presentation and here for the summary of the outputs.

FES 2019 Documents

All FES 2019 documents including:

FES in 5, Data workbooks, Scenario framework, Modelling methods and our Comparison document can be found here:

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios/fes-2019-documents

2018 archive

FES 2018 was published on Thursday 12th July 2018.

For an overview of FES 2018 including the key messages, watch the short animation film below:

To download any of the 2018 FES copies, click on the links.

The main FES provides an overview of key areas and alongside, we also publish:

FES in 5, which is a summary document with key headlines and statistics from FES;
Scenario Framework document (v2 updated 7 Feb 2019) which details all the assumptions that are used as inputs into our models;
Data Workbook (v2 updated 17 July 2018) which contains the outputs from the numerous models, including detailed tables, graphs and charts;
Modelling Methods document which contains information on our modelling methodology and assumptions;
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) document (v3 updated 3 September 2018).

To find out more about what the key changes are from FES 2017 to 2018, check out the two documents below:

Regional breakdown of FES data

Our Future Energy Scenarios are intended to identify a range of credible scenarios across gas and electricity on a GB-wide basis. In order to support planning of the GB electricity transmission system, we split the GB-level data down into regional data sets using best available data. These data sets are published in November as part of the Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS).

In order to provide visibility and transparency of this work, below we have published a spreadsheet containing draft regional data for electricity in the four FES 2018 scenarios. We have also published the number of heat pumps and domestic electric vehicles per grid supply point in the four FES2018 scenarios. This data forms a starting point for our network analysis and should be considered draft at this stage as it may be modified for planning purposes in the subsequent processes.

FES 2019 draft electricity regional breakdown baseline -year one only (uploaded 12.04.19)
FES 2018 draft electricity regional breakdown V4 (uploaded 25.01.19)
Regional split of FES heat pumps and EVs V1 (uploaded 14.11.18)

To assist with understanding of the spreadsheets, we have also published the corresponding Spatial Methodology Document below:

Spatial electricity modelling methodology V1 (uploaded 31.07.18)

To watch the live-stream recordings and presentations from the conference, click on the links below.

Morning presentation slides which include:

Welcome and Opening Address presentations by Roisin Quinn, Head of System Operator Strategy and Fintan Slye, Director of UK System Operator National Grid, respectively
FES 2018 Analysis presentation by Marcus Stewart, Head of Energy Insights, National Grid
Electric Dreams presentation by Baroness Worthington, UK Head of Environmental Defense
Implications for UK Energy Strategy presentation by Gerald Davis, Executive Chair, Scenarios, World Energy Council

Afternoon presentation slides which include the:

Transport session by Alex Haffner, Energy Demand Manager, National Grid
Electricity Supply and Demand session by Andrew Dobbie, Electricity Supply and Interconnectors Manager, National Grid
Gas Supply and Heat session by Neil Rowley, Whole System and Gas Supply Manager, National Grid

2017 archive

2017
- FES 2017 document (updated 18^th July 2017) If you wish to print a replacement of page 58 only, please click here
- FES summary document - FES in 5
- Charts Workbook (version 2.3, 10th May 2018)
- Modelling Methods
- Scenario Framework
- FAQs (updated 27 September 2017, incl. questions from FES conference)

Presentation slides:

Marcus Stewart: FES 2017 Overview
Jan Mather: FES 2017
Justin Laney (John Lewis Partnership): Biomethane in commercial vehicles
Dr. Alistair Martin (Flexitricity): Industry's stake in the future of electricity

Afternoon breakout session presentations:

Flexibility on a changing electricity system
The heating challenge
Low carbon transport and the results write up

Stakeholder engagement workshops were held in October 2017. To see the presentations that were used for the four events, click on the links below:

2016 archive

2016 FES Summary - 1954 KB
2016 FES - 7827 KB
2016 FES Data - 3121 KB

Webinar presentations can be found here

FES documents Archive

2019 archive

Call for Evidence for Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2019

Stakeholder Engagement Workshops

Themed workshops

FES 2019 Documents

2018 archive

2017 archive

2016 archive

2015 archive

2014 archive

2013 archive

2012 archive

2011 archive