Where are we now?
Electricity generation capacity and output in 2020
The electricity generation sector has seen the most progress made on decarbonisation, particularly in recent years and renewable generation capacity, primarily wind and solar, has increased fivefold over the past decade. This growth has been supported by Government subsidies and rapid reductions in cost. One of our major challenges in decarbonising the electricity system further is to replace fossil fuels as a source of flexibility on the electricity system. This will become increasingly important as we see more variable weather-driven sources of generation on the system.
Capacity on the electricity transmission network to move power across the country and between regions, from where it is generated to where it is needed, is an important factor. Detailed discussion of this is beyond the scope of FES but can be found in these publications which build on our FES analysis: Electricity Ten Year Statement, Network Options Assessment, and the Offshore Coordination Project.
Scenario Overviews – Electricity Supply
Power sector carbon intensity
The proportion of renewable generation increases across all scenarios, with offshore wind expected to provide the backbone of our electricity supply in 2050. Variable renewable technologies typically have a substantially lower load factor than fossil fuel generation. This means that generating an equivalent amount of energy, requires significantly higher installed renewable generation capacity.
Across all scenarios we see an increase in renewable generation output, particularly offshore wind, which grows to make up over half of electricity supply by the late 2030s in all scenarios. Natural gas as a proportion of output reduces through the 2020s, as it is displaced by renewables as the largest share of generation. In 2050 wind, solar, nuclear and BECCS provide over 90% of generation output in all scenarios.
Annual electricity supply