This includes cars, vans, buses and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs), which currently use fossil fuels for internal combustion engines (ICE). We also consider the impact of rail, aviation and shipping in achieving net zero emissions.
Key insights
Total annual demand for road transport in 2050

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Even in the slowest decarbonising scenario, no new cars with ICEs will be sold after 2040, including Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). This means all cars on the road will be ultra-low emission by 2050 at the latest, resulting in a 60% reduction in energy demand for road transport compared to today.
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System Transformation has 7.5 times more hydrogen cars, vans and lorries compared to our other net zero scenarios. Other modes of domestic and international transport, such as aviation and shipping, use hydrogen and bioresources to some extent in all net zero scenarios. As more consumers start to own Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), smart charging and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) uptake will increase helping to manage higher renewable supplies on the electricity system. This combined flexibility lead to up to 32 GW of peak shaving in Consumer Transformation by 2050.
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It’s essential that consumers are encouraged to change their consumption patterns through appropriate Time of Use Tariffs (TOUTs), whilst protecting vulnerable consumers. We assume that the trigger point for residential consumers moving to dynamic tariffs is getting an EV. In Leading the Way over 80% of consumers engage in smart charging, and 45% in V2G services.
Where are we now?
The road transport sector used over 400 TWh of energy in 2020, equivalent to 1132 MtCO2e. This accounts for 30% of total energy demand in Great Britain and 23% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Other forms of transport, including rail, aviation and shipping also need to embrace decarbonisation. Currently, 40% of the UK’s rail network is electrified, with the rest reliant on diesel trains. Aviation and shipping rely solely on fossil fuels. In 2018, shipping accounted for 3% of UK greenhouse gas emissions, and aviation 7%.