Regionalisation of FES | National Grid ESO

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Regionalisation of FES

We believe that there are aspects of decarbonising the whole energy system that are driven mainly by local factors. These cannot be fully understood using only a top-down assessment framework and we are increasingly focusing on more granular regional outputs. This is both as part of our modelling and through the insights we provide to the industry.

We are hopeful that the drive for regionalisation in our National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios will support understanding of future energy policy at a local level. We are also hopeful it will simplify and optimise the interface with the more bottom-up scenarios currently developed by gas and electricity network companies, such as the DFES, which we will be using to enrich future iterations of FES and further development of the regional breakdown of the GB scenarios. This will build upon and enhance the information we currently produce and publish such as the regional datasets that are used in the Electricity Ten Year Statement process.

What has happened so far?

Engagement has taken place with key stakeholders to explore a range of subjects; looking at how data and insights from FES is used, what is most important and useful, what are the key considerations for Regional FES and how can it support delivery of business plans with local stakeholders.

Key insight received from the engagement:

A more granular view of whole system scenarios would be welcomed, and agree it would increase the robustness of FES
A need to ensure scenario creation is coordinated and that there isn’t a duplication of effort
A need for transparency of the assumptions driving the regionalisation of the GB FES
Broad support for closer collaboration on the creation of more granular scenarios
Interactive tools can make it easier to use FES outputs to generate relevant insights
A better view of technology uptake and consumer/customer trends at regional level will improve understanding of the impact of the GB FES

The findings gathered from these discussions have led us to where we are today and our planned next steps.

We have already produced some of our analysis on a regional level:

Regional Data

Regional Map

Regional insights from the 2022 Future Energy Scenarios

Regional FES Explainer: this new interactive document explains the ambition and journey so far for regional FES.

Regional Modelling in FES: discussion of the assumptions in our new regional heat model

Background: why are we doing regionalisation of FES?

What has happened so far?

What can you expect next and how can you be involved to provide your views?